Yankees World Series odds 2022: Evaluating Yankees WS chances


Aaron Judge
“The Yankees’ Aaron Judge awaits a pitch in the seventh.” flickr photo by apardavila https://flickr.com/photos/apardavila/29446840892 shared under a Creative Commons (BY) license

Even the most optimistic Yankees fan didn’t expect them to start the season like this. In one of MLB’s most competitive divisions, the 27-time champions have already built a significant lead. The Yankees World Series odds in 2022 have shortened – they are second favorites at FanDuel, behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Yankees World Series odds 2022

Leading the American League East by seven in the loss column on June 9th, the Yankees are given a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs at Baseball Reference. The Yankees World Series chances are placed at 16.3%. New York has not played in the Fall Classic since their 103-win team lifted the Commissioner’s Trophy in 2009.

The division was supposed to be fiercely competitive with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Rays all in contention to win it. Instead, the Yankees have put themselves in a commanding position even before the middle of June. This follows an offseason which contained criticism aplenty for the organization as they watched Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Max Scherzer sign elsewhere.

New York trusted its core. New York trusted its player development. In what is now a significant sample, that faith has been rewarded.

Stats show Yankees are truly elite

The Yankees are fifth in runs scored per game on offense. No team is conceding fewer runs. Despite the high-profile struggles of Aroldis Chapman, they rank seventh in bullpen ERA, led by the brilliant Clay Holmes.

There is no signal that this is good fortune either. The Yankees’ hitters have the best xwOBA in the sport, and by a distance at that. The gap between the Yankees and the second-placed Twins is the same as the gap between Minnesota and Boston, who are down in eighth by that metric.

It’s a near-identical story with their pitching. As of June 9th, they have a team xwOBA of .287 from their pitching staff. The Dodgers are second with .300. Tampa Bay is seventh at .317.

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Analytics love this Yankees team. A more traditional method like the Pythagorean win-loss record also reflects their effectiveness – they are 39-17, just one win fewer than their actual return.

The defense, a major issue over the last couple of years, has improved, too.

However you look at it, the Yankees are the best team in baseball so far this season. Individual pitchers and hitters will inevitably cool off, but they can also expect improved production from Joey Gallo and will inevitably add to this roster at the deadline.

Can the Yankees win the 2022 World Series?

The answer is a resounding yes. New York is off to an historically strong start to the season, and they are dominating on both sides of the ball. The much-speculated rotation has delivered in a big way, while the offense has lived up to its billing after a down year in 2021.

Nestor Cortes and Aaron Judge have naturally grabbed the headlines. The pair are Cy Young and MVP frontrunners at the time of writing. This, though, is a truly teamwide effort, and that’s what will interest so many bettors when looking at Yankees World Series odds in 2022.

Back Aaron Judge at +170 for AL MVP & Nestor Cortes at +1100 for AL Cy Young

Being the best team in the regular year doesn’t necessarily translate to playoff success. The Yankees know that better than anyone. Fortune is a real factor in the postseason.

The rotation has tripped them up in previous playoffs, though that’s not going to be a concern this year. Their offense is obviously still dependent on the power of Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, but they are getting enough production from elsewhere to be relatively happy with the depth of this line up. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they added another bat before the trade deadline.

It is a big call to take any team over the Dodgers. With Los Angeles dealing with some injury issues and with a few of their key hitters struggling thus far, however, the Yankees are making a real case to be considered as World Series favorites.



“The Yankees’ Aaron Judge awaits a pitch in the seventh.” flickr photo by apardavila https://flickr.com/photos/apardavila/29446840892 shared under a Creative Commons (BY) license Even the most optimistic Yankees fan didn’t expect them to start the season like this. In one of MLB’s most competitive divisions, the 27-time champions have already built a significant lead. The Yankees…